By Bipin Deo

The origins of many of South Asia's enduring conflicts lie in the geopolitical legacy of British colonialism. According to several strategic thinkers, Pakistan was not merely the outcome of Partition but a geopolitical construct intended to preserve Western strategic interests in South Asia while maintaining a favourable balance of power in the broader Middle East.

This explains why many historians have described Pakistan as an "artificial state." Their argument is straightforward: religion alone cannot serve as the basis for a stable nation-state. Had it been so, Bangladesh would never have separated from Pakistan in 1971. The country's subsequent political evolution has repeatedly exposed the limitations of nation-building founded exclusively on religious identity.

Today, Pakistan finds itself caught in multiple crises. Beyond the pressures of regional geopolitics, it faces deepening internal instability. While successive governments have projected Pakistan as a close strategic ally of the United States, the country has simultaneously found itself balancing the competing interests of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Pakistani military personnel have historically contributed to Saudi Arabia's security architecture, including responsibilities linked to regional military contingencies involving Iran. These strategic contradictions have steadily complicated Pakistan's external and internal security environment.

Yet the most formidable challenge confronting Pakistan today is neither external nor military. It is the growing strain on its territorial integrity. Separatist movements in Balochistan, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (which Pakistan calls Azad Kashmir), and parts of the Pashtun belt have increasingly challenged Islamabad's authority.

The situation in Balochistan has become particularly significant. Senior Pakistani parliamentarian and religious leader Fazlur Rehman has publicly acknowledged that large parts of Balochistan have effectively slipped beyond the control of the Pakistani state. Simultaneously, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has sought to reinforce the idea of an independent Baloch nation by announcing its own flag, currency and national anthem. The organisation claims that nearly 85 per cent of Balochistan's territory is under its influence.

The strategic importance of Balochistan cannot be overstated. Although it accounts for nearly 44 per cent of Pakistan's landmass, the province possesses around 85 per cent of the country's mineral resources. Rich reserves of coal, copper and natural gas make it the backbone of Pakistan's resource economy. Baloch insurgent groups also claim influence over several important mining and energy-producing regions.

The insurgency has had consequences extending well beyond Pakistan's borders. Several projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), one of China's most ambitious overseas infrastructure initiatives, have reportedly suffered repeated disruptions because of the deteriorating security situation. Road connectivity linking Balochistan with Iran has also been affected.

The roots of the Baloch conflict stretch back to the Partition era. The Khan of Kalat had sought to preserve Balochistan as an independent state rather than merge it with Pakistan. Ironically, Muhammad Ali Jinnah had served as his legal representative during negotiations over Kalat's future. Yet it was Jinnah who later played the decisive role in facilitating Balochistan's accession to Pakistan.

Concerns about political marginalisation were voiced decades ago. One of the Khan's close relatives predicted during the 1950s that Punjab would eventually dominate Pakistan politically and economically, while the country's smaller provinces would remain permanently disadvantaged.

The present political landscape appears to reflect that forecast. Punjab enjoys overwhelming representation in Pakistan's National Assembly with around 141 members, while Balochistan has only 16 representatives. Similar disparities are visible in fiscal allocations. Punjab reportedly receives approximately four trillion Pakistani rupees from the federal government, whereas Balochistan receives only about 700 billion rupees despite its vast territory and abundant natural wealth.

Pakistan-occupied Kashmir presents a similar picture of growing political unrest. Although Islamabad officially describes the region as "Azad Kashmir," prolonged public protests have continued for more than forty days under the leadership of the Awami Committee. Demonstrations have spread across Rawalakot, Mirpur, Muzaffarabad and several other towns, while the number of casualties has continued to rise.

Historically, Kashmir earned the distinction of being called "Paradise on Earth." Under Maharaja Gulab Singh, the princely state achieved political consolidation and became known for its prosperity, cultural diversity, spiritual heritage and extraordinary natural beauty. Later, Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession with India. Nevertheless, historical developments resulted in nearly one-fifth of the former princely state's territory coming under Pakistan's control.

Over the decades, these territories evolved into sanctuaries for several extremist organisations. Groups including Al-Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba and organisations operating under the United Jihad Council have established their presence in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, transforming parts of the region into centres of militancy and radicalisation.

The impact on the local population has been profound. Tourism, once the principal driver of the regional economy, has suffered immensely because of terrorism and prolonged instability. Economic development has stagnated, and political control has overshadowed broader social and economic progress.

Military measures have remained Islamabad's primary response to political dissent and separatist aspirations. International human rights bodies have also expressed concern over allegations of human rights violations committed by Pakistani security forces in these territories.

Pakistan's changing geopolitical environment has further strengthened the influence of its military establishment. Despite military setbacks in successive conflicts with India, the armed forces continue to occupy a dominant position in Pakistan's political structure, with senior commanders receiving the country's highest military honours.

The trajectory of developments in both Balochistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir suggests that Pakistan's internal fault lines are becoming increasingly difficult to contain. Any serious weakening of state authority would have implications extending far beyond Pakistan's borders. Refugee flows, the expansion of extremist networks and concerns surrounding Pakistan's nuclear arsenal would inevitably draw the attention of competing global powers seeking to protect their strategic interests.

For India, these developments underscore the importance of maintaining robust strategic preparedness. As Pakistan navigates a period of growing internal uncertainty, New Delhi will need to continuously strengthen its national security architecture, monitor evolving regional dynamics and remain prepared for the geopolitical consequences of any major transformation within its western neighbour.

(The writer is a Nepal based geopolitics expert)