Bhopal August 3, 2026

The Assembly bypolls in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Gujarat produced mixed results for the major political parties. While the Congress retained the Datia Assembly seat in Madhya Pradesh by defeating the BJP candidate, the BJP held on to its traditional stronghold of Manjalpur in Gujarat. In Bihar, Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor was leading by more than 18,000 votes from the Bankipur Assembly seat when the story was filed.

Political observers differ on the significance of the Bihar result. While some describe it as a constituency-specific outcome, others believe it reflects a growing public acceptance of Prashant Kishor's alternative political platform. The bypoll results, however, are unlikely to alter the immediate political equations in the three states but are expected to influence the narrative ahead of future electoral battles.

According to reports in Datia, Madhya Pradesh, Congress candidate Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh defeated BJP's Ashutosh Tiwari by 6,016 votes, securing 66,426 votes against Tiwari's 60,398. Although the victory margin was lower than the 7,742-vote lead registered by the Congress in the 2023 Assembly election, the party succeeded in retaining the seat despite a high-profile contest. While a bypoll cannot be treated as a referendum on the state government, the outcome is likely to prompt the BJP to review its electoral strategy in the constituency. Numerically, however, the outcome does not affect the party's comfortable majority in the 230-member Assembly, where the BJP continues to hold 164 seats, while the Congress has 64, with two seats in limbo (undecided).

The performance of Azad Samaj Party candidate Damodar Singh Yadav also drew attention. He polled 22,215 votes, indicating that he succeeded in creating a third electoral space in the constituency. Although he did not alter the final outcome, political observers believe his vote share may have influenced the electoral arithmetic in a closely watched contest.

For the Congress, the victory is expected to boost the morale of both the organisation and its cadre after an intensive campaign. In Datia, however, much of the post-result political discussion centred on former Home Minister Dr Narottam Mishra, popularly known as "Dada", after the BJP replaced him with first-time candidate Ashutosh Tiwari. Many local observers believe the political narrative began to shift when the party announced its ticket. Mishra, who had started campaigning well before the candidate was declared, publicly accepted the party's decision and appealed to workers to back the official nominee. Even so, political observers believe the unexpected change may have left a section of the party's traditional support base unsettled during the campaign.

The Congress, too, witnessed organisational turbulence during the campaign. The bypoll was necessitated after the disqualification of former Congress MLA Rajendra Bharti following his conviction in a corruption case. On August 1, two days after polling, the Congress expelled Bharti from the party. Despite the developments, the party retained the seat with Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh's victory, giving the Congress an important political boost in Madhya Pradesh.