Indian diplomacy faces new challenges amid global shifts, from polar changes to strategic vacuums, requiring a nuanced approach to maintain influence.
Bipin Deo. Indian diplomacy today faces a serious challenge, navigating increasingly rocky waters amid sweeping global transformations—from a bipolar world to a unipolar phase, and now toward a multipolar and even multilateral order. Many postmodern scholars argue that the very concept of polarity is becoming obsolete in this turbulent and unpredictable global environment.
Over a long span of history, Indian diplomacy has successfully accomplished formidable tasks through distinct leadership styles. Jawaharlal Nehru institutionalized diplomatic thinking; Indira Gandhi personalized its execution; Rajiv Gandhi introduced a more privatized and modern approach supported by a galaxy of intellectual minds; and P.V. Narasimha Rao brought an intellectualized and strategic dimension to foreign policy. During the tenure of Dr. Manmohan Singh, a calm, calculated, and targeted diplomatic approach yielded significant results, exemplified by the landmark civil nuclear deal with the United States. Atal Bihari Vajpayee skillfully juxtaposed these approaches, reflecting India’s civilizational ethos—evident in initiatives such as his Lahore visit and the Agra summit with Pakistan.
Today, India stands at the cusp of development. As one of the fastest-growing economies, bolstered by a demographic dividend, it confronts a world where the old order is collapsing while a new one has yet to fully emerge—creating a strategic vacuum on the global diplomatic chessboard.
Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall, the world appeared unipolar under the leadership of the United States. Two major agendas dominated this phase. Politically, the U.S. championed liberal democracy, human rights, and pluralism. Economically, it accelerated globalization and economic liberalization. Trillions of dollars were spent and thousands of American lives lost—from the Korean Peninsula to Afghanistan—in pursuit of these ideals. As a custodian of the global order, the United States also played a central role in establishing international institutions.
However, the global landscape has undergone a significant shift, particularly with the rise of Donald Trump. His disruption of established norms and the blurring of boundaries between allies and adversaries have pushed the world into a more chaotic and unpredictable phase. Simultaneously, China has emerged as a formidable challenger to American dominance. Out of 64 critical technologies, China reportedly leads in 57, while the United States retains an edge in areas such as semiconductors and jet engines. China is also offering alternative global frameworks through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), alongside advancements in digital ecosystems such as WeChat, thereby challenging Western dominance.
Amid this clash of competing value systems, India must craft a new diplomatic strategy. While a heterogeneous American society promotes universal liberal values, a relatively closed Chinese system seeks to expand its influence under the banner of Confucian ideals. In this context, Indian diplomacy must adopt both introspective and forward-looking approaches.
Positioned in the Indo-Pacific region, India benefits from demographic strength and political stability. Power transitions occur smoothly through democratic elections—unlike in some countries where power changes are driven by military interventions. This structural stability reflects the strength of Indian democracy.
Indian diplomacy, therefore, must act with determination to amplify the voice of the Global South. Whether in forums like the G20 or in addressing global crises such as COVID-19, India has opened avenues to articulate the concerns of developing nations. It must continue to represent the interests of African and Asian countries that remain outside the mainstream of global development.
As a security provider in the Indian Ocean region, India must strengthen its strategic autonomy. The United States’ Indo-Pacific policy faces uncertainties, especially with shifting geopolitical priorities, which may also impact groupings like the Quad. Consequently, India needs to explore new partnerships within the Indo-Pacific, a region that serves as the economic lifeline of global trade.
With a strong presence in ASEAN countries, India can build goodwill and deepen cooperation. Despite their economic strength, ASEAN nations often lack the military capability to counterbalance China’s assertiveness. China’s inconsistent approach—perceived as both overbearing and selective—has created unease in the region, as seen in countries like the Philippines.
In the Gulf region, multiple fault lines persist—between Shia and Sunni, East and West, and modernism and traditionalism. India must adopt a balanced and strategic approach to strengthen energy security and protect its national interests. Given deep civilizational ties, India has significant potential to deepen its engagement with these nations.
Under its “Neighbourhood First” policy, India should encourage regional integration in South Asia by harnessing shared economic and energy potential. Relationships must be built on mutually beneficial outcomes—whether in trade, technology, education, or tourism—requiring a holistic diplomatic approach.
Above all, Indian diplomacy must seize emerging opportunities in the global workforce. As developed nations face demographic challenges, India stands to gain significantly by positioning its human capital effectively in the global labor market.
(The writer is a geopolitics expert based in Nepal)